Cubs at Marlins
Last play · Jonah Bride grounds out softly, pitcher Jorge López to first baseman Michael Busch.
Win probability
Marlins0%
CHC 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 3 – 3 MIA
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
Marlins favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Isaac Paredes doubles (23) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Kyle Stowers. Seiya Suzuki scores. (inning 8) — -26% Cubs
9Miguel Amaya homers (7) on a fly ball to center field. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.6–3
8Isaac Paredes doubles (23) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Kyle Stowers. Seiya Suzuki scores.4–3
5Kyle Stowers walks. Jake Burger scores. Jonah Bride to 3rd. Connor Norby to 2nd.3–3
3Jonah Bride singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Vidal Bruján scores. Jesús Sánchez to 2nd.3–2
3Ian Happ homers (23) on a fly ball to center field. Miguel Amaya scores.3–1
3Pete Crow-Armstrong hits an inside-the-park home run (6) on a line drive to right field.1–1
2Derek Hill grounds out, third baseman Isaac Paredes to first baseman Michael Busch. Connor Norby scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
