Cubs at Marlins
Last play · Miguel Amaya pops out to second baseman Otto Lopez in foul territory.
Win probability
Marlins100%
CHC 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 1 – 3 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 44.7% · hold 4%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-180 / +150
Marlins favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Connor Norby homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 1) — +13% Marlins
9Ian Happ hits a ground-rule double (29) on a line drive to left-center field. Mike Tauchman scores.2–7
8Derek Hill singles on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Kyle Stowers scores.1–7
8Kyle Stowers doubles (5) on a fly ball to right fielder Mike Tauchman. Otto Lopez scores.1–6
8Otto Lopez doubles (13) on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Jake Burger scores.1–5
8Jonah Bride out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Mike Tauchman. Connor Norby scores. Jake Burger to 3rd.1–4
3Jesús Sánchez grounds out, first baseman Michael Busch to second baseman Nico Hoerner. Connor Norby scores.1–3
2Christian Bethancourt singles on a line drive to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Dansby Swanson scores.1–2
1Jesús Sánchez homers (16) on a fly ball to center field.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
