Red Sox at Twins
Last play · Dominic Smith strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Twins100%
BOS 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 0 – 1 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+155 / -185
Twins favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Edouard Julien singles on a ground ball to left fielder Tyler O'Neill. Willi Castro scores. (inning 3) — +11% Twins
8Rafael Devers doubles (7) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Willi Castro. Reese McGuire scores. Jarren Duran scores.2–5
7Ryan Jeffers doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jarren Duran. Jose Miranda scores. Alex Kirilloff scores. Edouard Julien to 3rd.0–5
7Edouard Julien walks. Willi Castro scores. Jose Miranda to 3rd. Alex Kirilloff to 2nd.0–3
7Willi Castro reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by catcher Reese McGuire. Austin Martin scores. Carlos Santana to 2nd. Throwing error by catcher Reese McGuire.0–2
3Edouard Julien singles on a ground ball to left fielder Tyler O'Neill. Willi Castro scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








