Red Sox at Twins
Last play · Ryan Jeffers pops out to second baseman Vaughn Grissom.
Win probability
Twins0%
BOS 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 3 – 1 MIN
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+160 / -190
Twins favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ceddanne Rafaela homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Reese McGuire scores. (inning 5) — -27% Red Sox
9Rafael Devers homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. Jarren Duran scores.9–2
8Trevor Larnach singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jarren Duran. Max Kepler scores.7–2
8Dominic Smith doubles (1) on a fly ball to left fielder Manuel Margot. Wilyer Abreu scores. Vaughn Grissom scores.7–1
8Vaughn Grissom doubles (1) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Willi Castro. Rafael Devers scores. Tyler O'Neill scores. Wilyer Abreu to 3rd.5–1
5Ceddanne Rafaela homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Reese McGuire scores.3–1
4Rob Refsnyder doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to third baseman Jose Miranda, deflected by shortstop Carlos Correa. Jarren Duran scores.1–1
3Ryan Jeffers homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








