Mariners at Twins
Last play · Cal Raleigh strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Twins100%
SEA 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 0 – 1 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
Twins favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mitch Garver out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Manuel Margot. Jorge Polanco scores. (inning 7) — -21% Mariners
7Manuel Margot singles on a ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Willi Castro scores. Carlos Santana to 3rd.1–3
7Christian Vázquez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Carlos Correa scores. Willi Castro to 3rd.1–2
7Mitch Garver out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Manuel Margot. Jorge Polanco scores.1–1
5Carlos Correa doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Max Kepler scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








