Red Sox at Twins
Last play · Reese McGuire lines out sharply to first baseman Carlos Santana.
Win probability
Twins100%
BOS 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 1 – 2 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+155 / -185
Twins favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carlos Correa grounds out, third baseman Rafael Devers to first baseman Garrett Cooper. Jose Miranda scores. Willi Castro to 3rd. (inning 1) — +14% Twins
6Carlos Correa out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jarren Duran. Willi Castro scores.1–3
4Max Kepler homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.1–2
1Carlos Correa grounds out, third baseman Rafael Devers to first baseman Garrett Cooper. Jose Miranda scores. Willi Castro to 3rd.1–1
1Wilyer Abreu singles on a ground ball to left fielder Willi Castro. Tyler O'Neill scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








