Mariners at Twins
Last play · Leo Rivas strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Twins100%
SEA 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 1 – 9 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 6.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
Twins favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manuel Margot doubles (2) on a ground ball to left fielder Josh Rojas. Trevor Larnach scores. Max Kepler scores. Jose Miranda scores. (inning 1) — +15% Twins
7Manuel Margot reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Luis Urías. Jose Miranda scores. Manuel Margot to 2nd.1–11
7Max Kepler homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.1–10
5Manuel Margot grounds out, shortstop Leo Rivas to first baseman Luke Raley. Jose Miranda scores.1–9
4Ryan Jeffers out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Josh Rojas. Austin Martin scores.1–8
4Edouard Julien singles on a ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Carlos Santana scores. Austin Martin to 3rd.1–7
2Ryan Jeffers homers (8) on a line drive to left center field.1–6
2Luke Raley singles on a line drive to right fielder Trevor Larnach. Mitch Haniger scores.1–5
1Carlos Santana singles on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Manuel Margot scores.0–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








