Mariners at Twins
Last play · Jorge Polanco strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Twins100%
SEA 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 1 – 4 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
Twins favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cal Raleigh doubles (1) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Willi Castro. Julio Rodríguez scores. Mitch Haniger scores. (inning 7) — -19% Mariners
8Max Kepler doubles (8) on a fly ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Ryan Jeffers scores.3–6
8Ryan Jeffers doubles (12) on a ground ball to left fielder Josh Rojas. Edouard Julien scores.3–5
7Cal Raleigh doubles (1) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Willi Castro. Julio Rodríguez scores. Mitch Haniger scores.3–4
4Willi Castro triples (3) on a line drive to right fielder Mitch Haniger. Jose Miranda scores.1–4
4Mitch Garver homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.1–3
2Willi Castro homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.0–3
1Trevor Larnach homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.0–2
1Carlos Correa homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








