Royals at Twins
Last play · Bobby Witt Jr. grounds out, pitcher Jhoan Duran to first baseman Alex Kirilloff.
Win probability
Twins100%
KC 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 0 – 5 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+150 / -175
Twins favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jose Miranda homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. Edouard Julien scores. (inning 3) — +23% Twins
9Maikel Garcia singles on a soft ground ball to third baseman Willi Castro. Hunter Renfroe scores. MJ Melendez scores. Dairon Blanco to 3rd. Maikel Garcia to 2nd. Throwing error by third baseman Willi Castro.5–6
9Dairon Blanco singles on a ground ball to third baseman Willi Castro. Adam Frazier scores. Hunter Renfroe to 3rd. MJ Melendez to 2nd.3–6
9Hunter Renfroe doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Manuel Margot. Salvador Perez scores. Adam Frazier to 3rd.2–6
8Alex Kirilloff singles on a fly ball to left fielder MJ Melendez. Max Kepler scores. Ryan Jeffers to 2nd.1–6
6Vinnie Pasquantino singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Max Kepler. Maikel Garcia scores. Bobby Witt Jr. to 3rd.1–5
5Trevor Larnach homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Willi Castro scores. Edouard Julien scores.0–5
3Jose Miranda homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. Edouard Julien scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
