Rangers at Twins
Last play · Jonah Heim strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Twins100%
TEX 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 2 – 1 MIN
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -145
Twins favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alex Kirilloff homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field. Max Kepler scores. Byron Buxton scores. (inning 8) — +66% Twins
8Alex Kirilloff homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field. Max Kepler scores. Byron Buxton scores.3–5
7Carlos Correa out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Leody Taveras. Alex Kirilloff scores.3–2
6Leody Taveras doubles (8) on a fly ball to center fielder Byron Buxton. Josh Smith scores.3–1
5Ezequiel Duran homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.2–1
4Adolis García hits a ground-rule double (10) on a line drive down the right-field line. Corey Seager scores.1–1
1Ryan Jeffers walks. Carlos Correa scores. Jose Miranda to 3rd. Byron Buxton to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
