Astros at Twins
Last play · Joey Loperfido lines out to second baseman Willi Castro.
Win probability
Twins100%
HOU 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 3 – 7 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
Twins favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Max Kepler out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jake Meyers. Carlos Correa scores. (inning 1) — +9% Twins
7Byron Buxton homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Max Kepler scores.3–9
4Jon Singleton homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field. Yainer Diaz scores.3–7
3Brooks Lee homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Byron Buxton scores.1–7
3Alex Bregman doubles (18) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Max Kepler. Mauricio Dubón scores.1–5
2Carlos Santana singles on a line drive to center fielder Jake Meyers. Trevor Larnach scores. Jose Miranda to 2nd.0–5
2Jose Miranda singles on a line drive to center fielder Jake Meyers. Willi Castro scores. Trevor Larnach to 2nd.0–4
2Willi Castro doubles (22) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Joey Loperfido. Ryan Jeffers scores.0–3
1Max Kepler out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jake Meyers. Carlos Correa scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














