Astros at Twins
Last play · Christian Vázquez homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.
Win probability
Twins100%
HOU 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 2 – 2 MIN
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Twins favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Vázquez homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 9) — +23% Twins
9Christian Vázquez homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.2–3
4Christian Vázquez grounds into a force out, third baseman Alex Bregman to second baseman Jose Altuve. Brooks Lee scores. Matt Wallner out at 2nd. Christian Vázquez out at 2nd. Christian Vázquez out at 2nd, pitcher Spencer Arrighetti to first baseman Jon Singleton.2–2
2Christian Vázquez singles on a line drive to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Byron Buxton scores. Matt Wallner to 3rd.2–1
2Jose Altuve singles on a ground ball to left fielder Matt Wallner. Jake Meyers scores. Chas McCormick to 2nd.2–0
2César Salazar out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Matt Wallner in foul territory. Jon Singleton scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














