Phillies at Twins
Last play · Max Kepler singles on a ground ball to second baseman Bryson Stott. Trevor Larnach scores.
Win probability
Twins100%
PHI 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 1 – 1 MIN
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-135 / +115
Twins favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carlos Santana doubles (20) on a fly ball to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Trevor Larnach scores. Max Kepler scores. (inning 7) — +39% Twins
9Max Kepler singles on a ground ball to second baseman Bryson Stott. Trevor Larnach scores.4–5
7Carlos Santana doubles (20) on a fly ball to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Trevor Larnach scores. Max Kepler scores.4–4
7Max Kepler grounds into a force out, first baseman Bryce Harper to shortstop Trea Turner. Willi Castro scores. Trevor Larnach to 3rd. Byron Buxton out at 2nd. Max Kepler to 1st.4–2
7Nick Castellanos singles on a line drive to right fielder Max Kepler. Brandon Marsh scores.4–1
6Kyle Schwarber singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Nick Castellanos scores. Garrett Stubbs scores.3–1
5Trea Turner homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field.1–1
2Matt Wallner homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














