Guardians at Twins
Last play · Steven Kwan flies out to center fielder Byron Buxton.
Win probability
Twins100%
CLE 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 3 – 5 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
Twins favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Naylor homers (26) on a fly ball to right field. Steven Kwan scores. Will Brennan scores. (inning 5) — -41% Guardians
7Jose Miranda pops out to first baseman Josh Naylor in foul territory.3–6
5Matt Wallner homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Willi Castro scores. Trevor Larnach scores.3–5
5Josh Naylor homers (26) on a fly ball to right field. Steven Kwan scores. Will Brennan scores.3–2
2Austin Martin singles on a ground ball to shortstop Brayan Rocchio. Christian Vázquez scores. Throwing error by shortstop Brayan Rocchio.0–2
1Royce Lewis walks. Matt Wallner to 2nd. Willi Castro steals (12) home. Matt Wallner to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
