Cardinals at Twins
Last play · Max Kepler lines out sharply to right fielder Lars Nootbaar.
Win probability
Twins0%
STL 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 3 – 1 MIN
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Twins favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Lars Nootbaar doubles (11) on a line drive to right fielder Max Kepler. Willson Contreras scores. Brendan Donovan scores. (inning 4) — -26% Cardinals
8Masyn Winn out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Matt Wallner. Lars Nootbaar scores.6–1
8Victor Scott II walks. Nolan Arenado scores. Lars Nootbaar to 3rd. Luken Baker to 2nd.5–1
6Brendan Donovan homers (10) on a fly ball to center field.4–1
4Lars Nootbaar doubles (11) on a line drive to right fielder Max Kepler. Willson Contreras scores. Brendan Donovan scores.3–1
3Masyn Winn singles on a line drive to left fielder Matt Wallner. Victor Scott II scores.1–1
2Austin Martin singles on a soft ground ball to third baseman Nolan Arenado. Ryan Jeffers scores. Max Kepler to 3rd. Edouard Julien to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
