Cardinals at Twins
Last play · Luken Baker strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Twins100%
STL 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 0 – 5 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Twins favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Trevor Larnach homers (13) on a fly ball to right field. Austin Martin scores. Willi Castro scores. (inning 3) — +27% Twins
8Matt Wallner homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.0–6
5Trevor Larnach homers (14) on a fly ball to center field.0–5
3Max Kepler grounds into a force out, second baseman Brendan Donovan to shortstop Masyn Winn. Royce Lewis scores. Matt Wallner out at 2nd. Max Kepler to 1st.0–4
3Trevor Larnach homers (13) on a fly ball to right field. Austin Martin scores. Willi Castro scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
