Blue Jays at Twins
Last play · Spencer Horwitz grounds into a double play, shortstop Willi Castro to first baseman Carlos Santana. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. out at 2nd. Spencer Horwitz out at 1st.
Win probability
Twins100%
TOR 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 0 – 2 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 55.3% · hold 4%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Twins favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carlos Santana singles on a ground ball to right fielder Addison Barger. Jose Miranda scores. (inning 5) — +15% Twins
5Willi Castro out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Nathan Lukes. Carlos Santana scores.0–2
5Carlos Santana singles on a ground ball to right fielder Addison Barger. Jose Miranda scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
