Cubs at Mets
Last play · Mets challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Mets challenged (home-plate collision), call on the field was upheld: Jeff McNeil flies into a double play, left fielder Ian Happ to third baseman Nick Madrigal to catcher Miguel Amaya. Pete Alonso out at home.
Win probability
Mets0%
CHC 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 1 – 0 NYM
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
Mets favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Crow-Armstrong out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Starling Marte. Matt Mervis scores. (inning 5) — -16% Cubs
5Pete Crow-Armstrong out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Starling Marte. Matt Mervis scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








