Braves at Mets
Last play · Brett Baty lines out to center fielder Michael Harris II.
Win probability
Mets0%
ATL 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 3 – 0 NYM
Braves led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 44.7% · hold 4%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-160 / +135
Mets favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Orlando Arcia homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Michael Harris II scores. (inning 3) — -26% Braves
9J.D. Martinez homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.4–1
9Ronald Acuña Jr. walks. Marcell Ozuna scores. Michael Harris II to 3rd. Orlando Arcia to 2nd.4–0
4Michael Harris II singles on a ground ball to center fielder Harrison Bader. Austin Riley scores. Travis d'Arnaud to 2nd.3–0
3Orlando Arcia homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Michael Harris II scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








