Braves at Mets
Last play · Brandon Nimmo homers (6) on a fly ball to center field. Jeff McNeil scores.
Win probability
Mets100%
ATL 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 1 – 1 NYM
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
Mets favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Nimmo homers (6) on a fly ball to center field. Jeff McNeil scores. (inning 9) — +55% Mets
9Brandon Nimmo homers (6) on a fly ball to center field. Jeff McNeil scores.3–4
8Marcell Ozuna singles on a ground ball to center fielder Harrison Bader. Zack Short scores.3–2
6Pete Alonso doubles (7) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Michael Harris II. Francisco Lindor scores.2–2
6Marcell Ozuna singles on a ground ball to center fielder Harrison Bader. Zack Short scores. Matt Olson to 2nd.2–1
3Pete Alonso singles on a line drive to left fielder Jarred Kelenic. DJ Stewart scores. Francisco Lindor to 3rd.1–1
2Jarred Kelenic homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








