Phillies at Mets
Last play · J.D. Martinez grounds into a double play, second baseman Bryson Stott to first baseman Bryce Harper. Brandon Nimmo out at 2nd. J.D. Martinez out at 1st.
Win probability
Mets0%
PHI 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 6 – 2 NYM
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-170 / +145
Mets favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Whit Merrifield homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Bryson Stott scores. Edmundo Sosa scores. (inning 4) — -29% Phillies
8Nick Castellanos homers (9) on a fly ball to left field.7–2
5J.D. Martinez grounds out, third baseman Alec Bohm to first baseman Bryce Harper. Francisco Lindor scores.6–2
4Kyle Schwarber singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Harrison Bader. Cristian Pache scores.6–1
4Whit Merrifield homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Bryson Stott scores. Edmundo Sosa scores.5–1
4Edmundo Sosa singles on a fly ball to right fielder Starling Marte. Alec Bohm scores. Bryson Stott to 3rd.2–1
4Bryce Harper homers (15) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
1Starling Marte doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Whit Merrifield. Francisco Lindor scores. J.D. Martinez to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














