Marlins at Mets
Last play · Otto Lopez flies out to center fielder Harrison Bader.
Win probability
Mets100%
MIA 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 4 – 6 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -155
Mets favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Harrison Bader homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Francisco Lindor scores. (inning 1) — +17% Mets
8Starling Marte singles on a line drive to center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. Harrison Bader scores.4–10
8Francisco Lindor homers (11) on a fly ball to center field.4–9
7Francisco Alvarez grounds into a force out, second baseman Otto Lopez to shortstop Tim Anderson. Starling Marte scores. Tyrone Taylor to 3rd. Mark Vientos out at 2nd. Francisco Alvarez to 1st.4–8
7Mark Vientos singles on a fly ball to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Pete Alonso scores. Starling Marte to 3rd. Tyrone Taylor to 2nd.4–7
5Starling Marte homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.4–6
5Jazz Chisholm Jr. singles on a ground ball to left fielder Tyrone Taylor. Bryan De La Cruz scores. Jake Burger to 2nd.4–5
5Bryan De La Cruz doubles (13) on a ground ball to left fielder Tyrone Taylor. Otto Lopez scores.3–5
2J.D. Martinez singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. Jeff McNeil scores. Francisco Lindor to 3rd.2–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














