Padres at Mets
Last play · Jake Cronenworth strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets100%
SD 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 2 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
Mets favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · J.D. Martinez doubles (10) on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Jeff McNeil scores. Brandon Nimmo scores. (inning 3) — +23% Mets
5Jackson Merrill homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.1–2
3J.D. Martinez doubles (10) on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Jeff McNeil scores. Brandon Nimmo scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














