Marlins at Mets
Last play · J.D. Martinez homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Francisco Lindor scores.
Win probability
Mets100%
MIA 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 0 – 0 NYM
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+175 / -210
Mets favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · J.D. Martinez homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Francisco Lindor scores. (inning 9) — +55% Mets
9J.D. Martinez homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Francisco Lindor scores.2–3
7Starling Marte grounds into a double play, third baseman Jake Burger to second baseman Otto Lopez to first baseman Josh Bell. Brandon Nimmo scores. J.D. Martinez to 3rd. Pete Alonso out at 2nd. Starling Marte out at 1st.2–1
7Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (10) on a fly ball to center field.2–0
6Jake Burger homers (6) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














