Padres at Mets
Last play · Manny Machado grounds out, second baseman Jeff McNeil to first baseman Pete Alonso.
Win probability
Mets100%
SD 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 3 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -130
Mets favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · J.D. Martinez homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field. Brandon Nimmo scores. (inning 4) — +16% Mets
8Brandon Nimmo singles on a line drive to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Jeff McNeil scores.1–5
7J.D. Martinez homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.1–4
5Jackson Merrill homers (7) on a fly ball to center field.1–3
4J.D. Martinez homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field. Brandon Nimmo scores.0–3
4Brandon Nimmo doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Francisco Lindor scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














