Astros at Mets
Last play · Francisco Alvarez called out on strikes.
Win probability
Mets0%
HOU 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 4 – 6 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Mets favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alex Bregman singles on a line drive to right fielder Tyrone Taylor. Jeremy Peña scores. Trey Cabbage scores. Jose Altuve to 3rd. (inning 8) — -52% Astros
9Mauricio Dubón doubles (15) on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Yainer Diaz scores. Jake Meyers scores.9–6
8Alex Bregman singles on a line drive to right fielder Tyrone Taylor. Jeremy Peña scores. Trey Cabbage scores. Jose Altuve to 3rd.7–6
8Jose Altuve walks.5–6
4Jon Singleton singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Jeremy Peña scores.4–6
4Jeremy Peña doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Yordan Alvarez scores. Jake Meyers scores.3–6
3Mark Vientos homers (10) on a line drive to center field.1–6
2Pete Alonso singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jake Meyers. Harrison Bader scores. Brandon Nimmo scores.1–5
2Brandon Nimmo doubles (14) on a fly ball to left fielder Yordan Alvarez. Jose Iglesias scores. Harrison Bader to 3rd.1–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














