Braves at Mets
Last play · Pete Alonso strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets0%
ATL 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 3 – 0 NYM
Braves led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Mets favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Marcell Ozuna homers (30) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 4) — -14% Braves
7Eddie Rosario homers (10) on a fly ball to right field.4–0
5Orlando Arcia singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jeff McNeil. Sean Murphy scores.3–0
4Matt Olson homers (14) on a line drive to left center field.2–0
4Marcell Ozuna homers (30) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














