Braves at Mets
Last play · Austin Riley strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets100%
ATL 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 2 – 8 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
Mets favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · J.D. Martinez hits a grand slam (11) to right field. Tyrone Taylor scores. Francisco Lindor scores. Brandon Nimmo scores. (inning 3) — +48% Mets
9Adam Duvall homers (10) on a fly ball to center field.4–8
6Marcell Ozuna homers (29) on a fly ball to left field.3–8
4Mark Vientos walks. Brandon Nimmo scores. J.D. Martinez to 3rd. Pete Alonso to 2nd.2–8
3Francisco Alvarez homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.2–7
3Mark Vientos homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field. Jeff McNeil scores.2–6
3J.D. Martinez hits a grand slam (11) to right field. Tyrone Taylor scores. Francisco Lindor scores. Brandon Nimmo scores.2–4
2Adam Duvall homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Eddie Rosario scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














