Marlins at Mets
Last play · Derek Hill strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets100%
MIA 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 0 – 4 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+160 / -190
Mets favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Alonso homers (27) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 2) — +15% Mets
4Mark Vientos doubles (18) on a ground ball to left fielder Kyle Stowers. Francisco Lindor scores.0–4
3Jesse Winker singles on a ground ball to right fielder Vidal Bruján. Brandon Nimmo scores. J.D. Martinez to 3rd. Jesse Winker to 2nd. Throwing error by right fielder Vidal Bruján.0–3
2Pete Alonso homers (27) on a fly ball to center field.0–2
1Francisco Lindor homers (24) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
