Marlins at Mets
Last play · Kyle Stowers strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets100%
MIA 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 3 – 7 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+210 / -260
Mets favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jeff McNeil homers (12) on a fly ball to right field. Francisco Alvarez scores. (inning 4) — +30% Mets
5Jake Burger homers (24) on a fly ball to left center field.3–7
4Brandon Nimmo homers (17) on a fly ball to right field. Francisco Lindor scores. Mark Vientos scores.2–7
4Francisco Lindor triples (1) on a ground ball to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Harrison Bader scores.2–4
4Jeff McNeil homers (12) on a fly ball to right field. Francisco Alvarez scores.2–3
4Mets challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was upheld: Emmanuel Rivera grounds into a force out, shortstop Francisco Lindor to second baseman Jeff McNeil. Derek Hill scores. Otto Lopez out at 2nd. Emmanuel Rivera to 1st.2–1
4Derek Hill doubles (3) on a fly ball to right fielder Jesse Winker. Jonah Bride scores.1–1
1J.D. Martinez singles on a line drive to left fielder David Hensley. Brandon Nimmo scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
