Orioles at Mets
Last play · Jesse Winker homers (12) on a line drive to center field.
Win probability
Mets100%
BAL 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 0 – 2 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49% · hold 6.9%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
Mets favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Austin Slater homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Jackson Holliday scores. (inning 6) — -31% Orioles
9Jesse Winker homers (12) on a line drive to center field.3–4
8Adley Rutschman out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Colton Cowser scores.3–3
7Mark Vientos homers (20) on a fly ball to center field.2–3
6Austin Slater homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Jackson Holliday scores.2–2
5J.D. Martinez grounds into a force out, third baseman Ramón Urías to second baseman Jackson Holliday. Harrison Bader scores. Mark Vientos out at 2nd. J.D. Martinez to 1st.0–2
3Francisco Lindor homers (25) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
