Orioles at Mets
Last play · Francisco Alvarez homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.
Win probability
Mets100%
BAL 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 1 – 3 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
Mets favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ramón Urías homers (8) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 7) — -36% Orioles
9Francisco Alvarez homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.3–4
7Ramón Urías homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.3–3
5Jackson Holliday grounds out to first baseman Pete Alonso. Ramón Urías scores.1–3
4Tyrone Taylor singles on a ground ball to left fielder Austin Slater. Pete Alonso scores. Francisco Alvarez to 2nd.0–3
1J.D. Martinez homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. Mark Vientos scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
