Red Sox at Yankees
Last play · Oswaldo Cabrera grounds out to first baseman Dominic Smith.
Win probability
Yankees0%
BOS 100%NYY 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 1 – 3 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -140
Yankees favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ceddanne Rafaela homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. David Hamilton scores. (inning 10) — -46% Red Sox
10Ceddanne Rafaela homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. David Hamilton scores.5–3
9Masataka Yoshida homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Dominic Smith scores.3–3
5Romy Gonzalez homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.1–3
4Trent Grisham grounds out, second baseman Enmanuel Valdez to first baseman Romy Gonzalez. Oswaldo Cabrera scores. Austin Wells to 3rd. Anthony Volpe to 2nd.0–3
4Anthony Volpe walks. Aaron Judge scores. Oswaldo Cabrera to 3rd. Austin Wells to 2nd.0–2
4Austin Wells reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by second baseman Enmanuel Valdez. Juan Soto scores. Aaron Judge to 3rd. Oswaldo Cabrera to 2nd. Throwing error by second baseman Enmanuel Valdez.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














