Blue Jays at Yankees
Last play · Aaron Judge called out on strikes.
Win probability
Yankees0%
TOR 100%NYY 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 7 – 5 NYY
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+145 / -170
Yankees favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Aaron Judge homers (40) on a fly ball to left center field. Juan Soto scores. (inning 1) — +19% Yankees
6Spencer Horwitz singles on a ground ball to right fielder Juan Soto. Brian Serven scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. out at 3rd on the throw, right fielder Juan Soto to third baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr.8–5
5Austin Wells singles on a ground ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Juan Soto scores. Aaron Judge to 2nd. Fielding error by center fielder Daulton Varsho.7–5
5Anthony Volpe homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field. Ben Rice scores.7–4
3Brian Serven singles on a line drive to center fielder Aaron Judge. Spencer Horwitz scores. Davis Schneider scores. Leo Jiménez to 2nd.7–2
3Ernie Clement singles on a ground ball to second baseman Gleyber Torres. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Spencer Horwitz to 2nd.5–2
3Spencer Horwitz singles on a line drive to left fielder Alex Verdugo. Joey Loperfido scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 3rd.4–2
1Aaron Judge homers (40) on a fly ball to left center field. Juan Soto scores.3–2
1Ernie Clement doubles (16) on a fly ball to left fielder Alex Verdugo. Spencer Horwitz scores. Daulton Varsho scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
