Padres at Phillies
Last play · Manny Machado grounds into a double play, shortstop Trea Turner to second baseman Whit Merrifield to first baseman Alec Bohm. David Peralta out at 2nd. Manny Machado out at 1st.
Win probability
Phillies100%
SD 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 6 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+165 / -195
Phillies favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Schwarber homers (15) on a fly ball to center field. Rafael Marchán scores. (inning 3) — +23% Phillies
7Rafael Marchán singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Brandon Marsh scores.2–9
7Donovan Solano doubles (4) on a line drive to center fielder Brandon Marsh. Jurickson Profar scores.2–8
6Kyle Schwarber homers (16) on a fly ball to center field. Rafael Marchán scores.1–8
5Alec Bohm homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Trea Turner scores. Bryce Harper scores.1–6
5Jake Cronenworth grounds out, second baseman Bryson Stott to first baseman Bryce Harper. Manny Machado scores.1–3
4Rafael Marchán singles on a fly ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Brandon Marsh scores.0–3
3Kyle Schwarber homers (15) on a fly ball to center field. Rafael Marchán scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














