Guardians at Phillies
Last play · Trea Turner grounds out, shortstop Brayan Rocchio to first baseman David Fry.
Win probability
Phillies0%
CLE 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 3 – 3 PHI
Tied through 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -130
Phillies favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jhonkensy Noel homers (6) on a fly ball to center field. José Ramírez scores. David Fry scores. (inning 4) — -31% Guardians
7Steven Kwan homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.4–3
4Jhonkensy Noel homers (6) on a fly ball to center field. José Ramírez scores. David Fry scores.3–3
3Kyle Schwarber homers (22) on a line drive to right center field. Garrett Stubbs scores.0–3
1Kyle Schwarber homers (21) on a fly ball to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














