Nationals @ Phillies — Live Pitcher Fatigue & Win Probability

WSH3–

PHI13

Final

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
WSH	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	3	8	3
PHI	4	0	0	5	0	0	2	2	·	13	17	1

Last play · Jacob Young grounds into a force out, third baseman Alec Bohm to second baseman Edmundo Sosa. José Tena out at 2nd.

Win probability

Phillies100%

WSH 0%PHI 100%

First 5 (F5)

final

WSH 1 – 9 PHI

Phillies led after 5

Total runs

7.5

opened 7.5

fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%

Run line

-1.5

Moneyline

reference

+215 / -265

Phillies favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓

Biggest swing · Alec Bohm homers (13) on a fly ball to left field. Trea Turner scores. Bryce Harper scores. (inning 1) — +24% Phillies

8Johan Rojas singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder James Wood. J.T. Realmuto scores. Weston Wilson scores. Johan Rojas out at 2nd on the throw, left fielder James Wood to second baseman Luis García Jr.3–13

7Bryce Harper reaches on a fielding error by center fielder Jacob Young. Kyle Schwarber scores. Trea Turner to 3rd. Bryce Harper to 2nd.3–11

7Weston Wilson homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.3–10

7Keibert Ruiz homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.3–9

6James Wood grounds out, pitcher Zack Wheeler to shortstop Trea Turner to first baseman Bryce Harper. Jacob Young scores. CJ Abrams to 3rd.2–9

5Keibert Ruiz homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field.1–9

4Nick Castellanos singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Alex Call. Bryce Harper scores.0–9

4Bryce Harper singles on a line drive to right fielder Alex Call. Trea Turner scores. Bryce Harper to 2nd.0–8

Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.

Line score

The book's line

Win probability timeline

Scoring plays

Nationals at Phillies