Cubs at Pirates
Last play · Michael A. Taylor lines out sharply to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Win probability
Pirates0%
CHC 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 2 – 1 PIT
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
Pirates favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Connor Joe homers (5) on a line drive to left field. Oneil Cruz scores. (inning 10) — +31% Pirates
10Connor Joe homers (5) on a line drive to left field. Oneil Cruz scores.5–4
10Yan Gomes flies out to center fielder Michael A. Taylor.5–2
10Patrick Wisdom homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.4–2
10Cody Bellinger singles on a ground ball to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Seiya Suzuki scores. Cody Bellinger out at 2nd on the throw, left fielder Bryan Reynolds to third baseman Jared Triolo to first baseman Connor Joe to second baseman Nick Gonzales to third baseman Jared Triolo.3–2
6Jared Triolo out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Mike Tauchman. Connor Joe scores. Jack Suwinski to 3rd.2–2
4Oneil Cruz homers (7) on a fly ball to right field.2–1
1Christopher Morel homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Nico Hoerner scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








