Twins at Pirates
Last play · Willi Castro flies out to right fielder Jack Suwinski.
Win probability
Pirates100%
MIN 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 0 – 2 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
Pirates favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Oneil Cruz homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 2) — +15% Pirates
8Connor Joe homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.0–3
4Nick Gonzales out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Byron Buxton. Bryan Reynolds scores. Oneil Cruz to 3rd.0–2
2Oneil Cruz homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














