Twins at Pirates
Last play · Willi Castro flies out to left fielder Bryan Reynolds.
Win probability
Pirates100%
MIN 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 0 – 0 PIT
Tied through 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
Pirates favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Rowdy Tellez homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 7) — +21% Pirates
8Michael A. Taylor singles on a ground ball to center fielder Byron Buxton. Rowdy Tellez scores. Yasmani Grandal to 3rd.0–4
8Rowdy Tellez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Manuel Margot. Oneil Cruz scores. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores.0–3
7Rowdy Tellez homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














