Rays at Pirates
Last play · Isaac Paredes grounds out, shortstop Oneil Cruz to first baseman Rowdy Tellez.
Win probability
Pirates100%
TB 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 2 – 4 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
Pirates favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Oneil Cruz homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 1) — +14% Pirates
9Yandy Díaz doubles (15) on a line drive to center fielder Michael A. Taylor. José Caballero scores.3–4
4Ben Rortvedt singles on a fly ball to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Richie Palacios scores.2–4
3Nick Gonzales grounds into a force out, third baseman José Caballero to second baseman Richie Palacios. Oneil Cruz scores. Rowdy Tellez out at 2nd. Nick Gonzales to 1st.1–4
3Rowdy Tellez singles on a line drive to right fielder Josh Lowe. Bryan Reynolds scores. Oneil Cruz to 3rd.1–3
3Bryan Reynolds singles on a line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Andrew McCutchen scores.1–2
1Oneil Cruz homers (10) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
1Josh Lowe grounds out, shortstop Oneil Cruz to first baseman Rowdy Tellez. Brandon Lowe scores. Randy Arozarena to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














