Rays at Pirates
Last play · Jack Suwinski flies out sharply to center fielder Jose Siri.
Win probability
Pirates0%
TB 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 4 – 2 PIT
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-130 / +110
Pirates favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Lowe homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field. Taylor Walls scores. Brandon Lowe scores. (inning 6) — -17% Rays
9Ben Rortvedt homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Amed Rosario scores. Jose Siri scores.10–3
8Bryan Reynolds homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field.7–3
6Josh Lowe homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field. Taylor Walls scores. Brandon Lowe scores.7–2
4Jack Suwinski doubles (6) on a line drive to right fielder Josh Lowe. Nick Gonzales scores. Ke'Bryan Hayes to 3rd.4–2
4Ke'Bryan Hayes singles on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Rowdy Tellez scores. Nick Gonzales to 2nd.4–1
4Brandon Lowe singles on a fly ball to shortstop Oneil Cruz. Ben Rortvedt scores. Yandy Díaz to 2nd.4–0
4Yandy Díaz singles on a line drive to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Jose Siri scores. Ben Rortvedt to 2nd.3–0
3Josh Lowe homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














