Cardinals at Pirates
Last play · Nick Gonzales flies out to right fielder Dylan Carlson.
Win probability
Pirates0%
STL 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 6 – 4 PIT
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Pirates favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alec Burleson homers (13) on a fly ball to right field. Masyn Winn scores. (inning 3) — -26% Cardinals
7Brendan Donovan singles on a line drive to right fielder Edward Olivares. Paul Goldschmidt scores. Brendan Donovan to 2nd.7–4
5Andrew McCutchen homers (12) on a fly ball to center field.6–4
5Jack Suwinski homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field. Rowdy Tellez scores. Nick Gonzales scores.6–3
4Nolan Gorman hits a grand slam (17) to left center field. Brendan Donovan scores. Nolan Arenado scores. Matt Carpenter scores.6–0
3Alec Burleson homers (13) on a fly ball to right field. Masyn Winn scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














