Mets at Pirates
Last play · Jeff McNeil flies out to left fielder Bryan Reynolds in foul territory.
Win probability
Pirates100%
NYM 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 0 – 2 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Pirates favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Nimmo homers (14) on a fly ball to center field. Harrison Bader scores. (inning 6) — -31% Mets
8Joshua Palacios grounds into a force out, shortstop Francisco Lindor to second baseman Jose Iglesias. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores. Nick Gonzales out at 2nd. Joshua Palacios to 1st.2–8
6Joshua Palacios homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.2–7
6Nick Gonzales doubles (11) on a ground ball to right fielder Jeff McNeil. Oneil Cruz scores. Rowdy Tellez scores. Nick Gonzales to 3rd. Fielding error by right fielder Jeff McNeil.2–5
6Rowdy Tellez singles on a ground ball to third baseman Mark Vientos. Bryan Reynolds scores. Oneil Cruz to 2nd.2–3
6Brandon Nimmo homers (14) on a fly ball to center field. Harrison Bader scores.2–2
4Oneil Cruz homers (14) on a fly ball to center field. Andrew McCutchen scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














