Cardinals at Pirates
Last play · Connor Joe strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Pirates0%
STL 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 1 – 0 PIT
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+155 / -185
Pirates favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alec Burleson singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Connor Joe. Michael Siani scores. (inning 9) — -34% Cardinals
9Alec Burleson singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Connor Joe. Michael Siani scores.2–1
8Nick Gonzales singles on a ground ball to center fielder Michael Siani. Oneil Cruz scores.1–1
5Nolan Arenado homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














