Mariners at Pirates
Last play · Justin Turner called out on strikes.
Win probability
Pirates100%
SEA 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 2 – 3 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 6.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Pirates favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luke Raley homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field. Jorge Polanco scores. (inning 4) — -26% Mariners
9Jorge Polanco homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field.3–5
7Oneil Cruz doubles (26) on a line drive to center fielder Victor Robles, deflected by right fielder Dominic Canzone. Michael A. Taylor scores. Ji Hwan Bae scores.2–5
5Andrew McCutchen out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Michael A. Taylor scores.2–3
5Yasmani Grandal homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.2–2
4Isiah Kiner-Falefa doubles (11) on a line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Bryan Reynolds scores.2–1
4Luke Raley homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field. Jorge Polanco scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
