Cubs at Pirates
Last play · Billy McKinney strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Pirates0%
CHC 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 3 – 10 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+145 / -175
Pirates favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Bethancourt singles on a ground ball to left fielder Michael A. Taylor, deflected by shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Luis Vazquez scores. Dansby Swanson scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong to 2nd. (inning 9) — -71% Cubs
9Seiya Suzuki singles on a line drive to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Ian Happ scores. Mike Tauchman to 3rd.14–10
9Mike Tauchman singles on a line drive to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Christian Bethancourt scores. Ian Happ to 3rd.13–10
9Ian Happ singles on a line drive to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Christian Bethancourt to 3rd.12–10
9Christian Bethancourt singles on a ground ball to left fielder Michael A. Taylor, deflected by shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Luis Vazquez scores. Dansby Swanson scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong to 2nd.11–10
9Dansby Swanson grounds into a force out, second baseman Alika Williams to shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Cody Bellinger scores. Luis Vazquez to 3rd. Nico Hoerner out at 2nd. Dansby Swanson to 1st.9–10
8Ian Happ singles on a ground ball to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Christian Bethancourt scores.8–10
8Christian Bethancourt doubles (7) on a ground ball to left fielder Michael A. Taylor. Dansby Swanson scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.7–10
7Christian Bethancourt homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.5–10
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
