Dodgers at Padres
Last play · Andy Pages strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres100%
LAD 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 0 – 4 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
Padres favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was overturned: Jake Cronenworth homers (7) on a line drive to center field. (inning 1) — +9% Padres
5Xander Bogaerts homers (3) on a line drive to left center field.0–4
4Luis Arraez grounds into a force out, first baseman Freddie Freeman to shortstop Mookie Betts. Jackson Merrill scores. Luis Campusano to 3rd. Ha-Seong Kim out at 2nd. Luis Arraez to 1st.0–3
1Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was overturned: Jake Cronenworth homers (7) on a line drive to center field.0–2
1Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








