Rockies at Padres
Last play · Fernando Tatis Jr. grounds out, shortstop Ezequiel Tovar to first baseman Elehuris Montero.
Win probability
Padres0%
COL 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 1 – 0 SD
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+200 / -240
Padres favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan McMahon homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 4) — -20% Rockies
7Jake Cronenworth lines out to right fielder Jake Cave.6–3
7Luis Arraez singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jake Cave. Jackson Merrill scores. Luis Campusano to 2nd.6–2
7Luis Campusano singles on a ground ball to center fielder Brenton Doyle. Jurickson Profar scores. Jackson Merrill to 3rd.6–1
7Ezequiel Tovar homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.6–0
6Jordan Beck singles on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Jake Cave scores. Elehuris Montero to 2nd.5–0
6Elehuris Montero singles on a soft ground ball to pitcher Stephen Kolek. Brenton Doyle scores. Jake Cave to 3rd.4–0
6Jake Cave singles on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Brendan Rodgers scores. Brenton Doyle to 3rd. Jake Cave to 2nd.3–0
6Brendan Rodgers singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Ezequiel Tovar scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








