Marlins at Padres
Last play · Dane Myers grounds out softly, third baseman Manny Machado to first baseman Luis Arraez.
Win probability
Padres100%
MIA 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 1 – 1 SD
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+170 / -200
Padres favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Cronenworth walks. Ha-Seong Kim scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 3rd. Manny Machado to 2nd. (inning 7) — +21% Padres
7Jake Cronenworth walks. Ha-Seong Kim scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 3rd. Manny Machado to 2nd.1–2
3Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.1–1
2Donovan Solano homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
